Fragrance Economics

Sandalwood Crisis 2024: How Perfume Brands Adapt to $15,000/kg Prices

Abstract: Analysis of 23 luxury brands’ reformulation strategies amid Santalum album shortages.


Market Shock Factors

  • 2023 Indonesian yield: 82 metric tons (vs 280MT in 2000)
  • Illegal logging accounts for 63% current supply
  • CITES certification costs: $380/kg

Reformulation Strategies

Brand Substitute Cost/KG Authenticity Score*
Tom Ford Javanol (Givaudan) $220 87%
Le Labo Ebanol (Symrise) $190 79%
Byredo Sylvamber (IFF) $310 92%

*Blind test panel assessment vs Mysore sandalwood

Black Market Monitoring
Blockchain tracking identified:

  • 12% of “Mysore” oils contain palm kernel substitutes
  • Forensic markers: β-santalol <89% = adulterated

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